Forecasting wool export volume from New Zealand – the megatrend of synthetic substitutes
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31305/ijmds.v15n08.003Keywords:
wool export, New Zealand, IWTO, ARIMAAbstract
We have used traditional forecasting techniques such as exponential smoothing, decomposition and Box-Jenkins methods to forecast the export volume of wool fibre from New Zealand to its four major markets. The demand for strong fibre has almost halved due to natural wool substitution by synthetics. Our regression forecast predicts that, if these trends persist, then by 2048 there will be no demand for strong fibre. The demand for mid-fibre, which has halved over the last twenty-five years, may likewise become very small. The demand for fine fibre has been fluctuating and constitutes about 10% of the entire demand. We conclude that fine fibre merino wool is still preferred for branded luxury and comfort, but with unsteady demand. The two other coarser yarns, which were customarily purchased for essential winter-time protection, are slowly being replaced by cheaper synthetic and BT substitutes, in the way of all animal products such as dairy products, dyes, fur or leather accessories.
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