A Predictive Analysis of the Organized Retail Market in India Using Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Technique

Authors

  • Kalipada Senapati Assistant Professor, Dept. of Management Science, MCKV Institute of Engineering, 243 G. T. Road (North), Liluah, Howrah, Affiliated to Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, West Bengal, India https://orcid.org/0009-0003-7269-446X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53983/ijmds.v13n11.001

Keywords:

Indian organized retail market, Univariate forecasting, Holt-Winter exponential smoothing, Forecast errors

Abstract

The study aims to predict the size of the Indian organized retail market for future years. Most previous studies provided descriptive insights into the development of the organized retail industry without specifying any forecasting methods and approaches used in their predictions. This study attempts to employ the Holt-Winter exponential smoothing method for analyzing the Indian organized retail sector, a novel approach in this domain. The investigation began with a sales forecast for the preceding twenty-one years of data using different combinations of α and β coefficients. The best model was selected based on the α and β values that yielded the minimum statistical errors, as measured by MAD, MAPE, and MSE. The forecast results indicate a projected CAGR of 13.23% for the Indian organized retail market size over the next six years. The findings will provide retail marketers the latest market trends to inform sound business planning.

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Author Biography

Kalipada Senapati, Assistant Professor, Dept. of Management Science, MCKV Institute of Engineering, 243 G. T. Road (North), Liluah, Howrah, Affiliated to Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology, West Bengal, India

Kalipada Senapati holds a Bachelor of Electrical Engineering from Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India and a Master of Business Administration from the Indian Institute of Social Welfare and Business Management, Calcutta University, Kolkata, India. He is currently pursuing a Ph.D. in management from Maulana Abul Kalam Azad University of Technology. He has successfully defended his Ph.D. synopsis and is awaiting submission. Currently, he is working as an Assistant Professor in the Department of Management Science at MCKV Institute of Engineering, a NAAC-A accredited autonomous institute in West Bengal, India. He brings twenty-one years of industry experience and seventeen years of teaching experience to his role. Orcid ID: 0009-0003-7269-446X.

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Published

23-11-2024

How to Cite

Senapati, K. “A Predictive Analysis of the Organized Retail Market in India Using Holt-Winter Exponential Smoothing Technique”. International Journal of Management and Development Studies, vol. 13, no. 11, Nov. 2024, pp. 01-10, doi:10.53983/ijmds.v13n11.001.

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